Our New S&p 500 Earnings & Price Targets Under Trump’s Reign Of Tariffs

Interestingly, currently, we see no clear signs of shortages or supply-side stress in any of the agricultural commodities except in the livestock sector and to some extent cocoa markets. We see there is a room for further robust growth in investor demand for gold too, particularly as we expect gold ownership to continue expanding into 2026 and 2027. Frontier markets, what we call frontier markets in general, particularly in local markets, places like Egypt, Nigeria, Kazakhstan, maybe we’d put Argentina in that bucket as well, also been a great source of returns. We have transformative potentially elections in Columbia, Peru, Brazil, in Latin America, Hungary, and Israel, and EMEA, EM are all going to be very closely watched, and be opportunities within markets.

Related Data And Content

• Keep an eye on both the upside and the downside, and be ready to pivot as the data and the headline evolves.
• In addition, an AI spending wave could deliver a limited boost to the global economy.
• However, global GDP growth is expected to receive a boost in the first half of the year thanks to front-loaded fiscal stimulus, promoting a rebound in sentiment.
• That’s because forward earnings always converges toward the following year’s estimate as the current year progresses, and the 2026 estimate is higher (chart).

Businesses will likely focus on unlocking excess cash, which could in turn fuel capital investment, wage growth and shareholder returns. Sanaenomics — the economic policies of new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi — and corporate reforms will likely propel Japanese equities in 2026. “In such an environment, broad sentiment measures remain prone to sharp swings, even though underlying trends remain intact and fundamentals solid,” Lakos-Bujas said. Indeed, AI could further amplify polarization within an already unhealthy K-shaped economy, and market concentration could reach new highs as a result. “The AI-driven supercycle is fueling record capex and rapid earnings expansion. Head of Global Markets Strategy, J.P. Morgan

Exhibit 12: The Mega-cap Tech Stocks Trade At Their Lowest Valuation Premium To The Rest Of The S&p 500 Since 2017

Let’s call it something between decidedly subpar growth and, and recession. I mean, I would say first and foremost, I would say risk-wise, any significant deviation from our macro baseline. Um, so we expect to see a little bit of compression in a modestly wider spread environment.

Global Index Briefings

• In Japan, the sharp rise in USD/JPY has come to a halt, but the yen still declined slightly in 2025 — highlighting the challenge for it to sustainably outperform while interest rates remain negative.
• Other standouts in the third quarter earnings season included financials (23% EPS growth and 90% of companies beating EPS forecasts), where ytd returns also have been driven by earnings (see chart above).
• 10-year Treasuries, 10-year Bunds and 10-year gilts could reach 4.35%, 2.75% and 4.75% respectively by the fourth quarter, with mixed curve performance.
• It will also mark the 21st consecutive quarter of revenue growth for the index.
• We expect this tightening availability driven by low producer margins to heighten sensitivity and price volatility in response to supply-side shocks.

Morgan Global Research sees a resilient global growth outlook for 2026 thanks to factors including front-loaded fiscal policy support. Where labor markets in some key countries, including the United States, begin to tighten again and central banks don’t deliver on the expectations that markets have for interest rate declines. “We expect the global economy to remain resilient in 2026, with AI investment continuing to drive market dynamics and support growth.” Yet through each quarter, company earnings growth held steady or improved.

• While we do our utmost to ensure that all our data is up-to-date, we encourage you to verify our information with the broker directly.
• The forward four-quarter P/E for the group is currently 23.8x–the lowest in three years.
• In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 9.1% above estimates, which is above the 5-year average of 7.7% and above the 10-year average of 7.0%.
• Roughly 30% of index constituents are projected to grow earnings by more than 10%, while just 21% are expected to contract by more than 10%.
• It would also mark the 21st consecutive quarter of revenue growth for the index.

Exhibit 18: The Insensitive Portfolio Has Demonstrated Little Correlation With Economic Growth Expectations

A simple, equally-weighted average return of all Zacks Rank stocks is calculated to determine the monthly return. Stay informed of all important earnings trends and events for your stocks by setting up a portfolio tracker on Zacks.com. Find Stocks Likely to Surprise with 70% Accuracy Earnings ESP has proven to be a very valuable tool for investors seeking stocks that are most likely to beat earnings estimates.

Hsbc Wealth Has Shifted Its Views On Europe, The Uk And The Ai Megatrend

Get unique value-add analytics and predictive financial modeling, dedicated to making investment research smarter with LSEG StarMine data. LSEG I/B/E/S Estimates are a market leader, boasting 200+ metrics and indicators across 15 industries. It places the most comprehensive market information, news, analytics, and trading tools available into a desktop. Slowing economic growth would dampen top-line revenue while operating leverage and tariff pressures weigh simultaneously on profitability. Most sectors have seen downward revisions to margin forecasts—excluding Health Care and Technology—with Materials, Real Estate, and Industrials experiencing the most significant cuts (Exhibit 8).

We expect the policy rate to rise to 1% by the end of next year as underlying inflation, uh, continues to rise. In fact, for S&P 500 in the latest Q3 results, the remaining 493 stocks have recorded the best earnings growth in years at past 12%, and the gap with Max seven has narrowed quite a lot. Now, AI names have been responsible for pretty much all the incremental earnings growth in the past few years, and in our view, they’re likely to deliver above market earnings growth again next year. “This is likely to hit EM FX, rates markets and EM credit too, with sell-offs and negative returns resulting,” noted Luis Oganes, head of Global Macro Research at J.P.

The top of the range reflects our base-case scenario remaining intact even this year, while the bottom of the range is more consistent with the risks that could thwart that. (6) Our earnings estimates Everestex review above lead us to forecast that S&P 500 forward earnings per share will be $300 at the end of this year and $350 at the end of 2026 (chart). The risk, of course, is that they won’t do so if Trump’s Reign of Tariffs results in stagflation.

But the risks on balance, if we do get a large move, I think is skewed to the downside. I think there could be periods, long periods of dollar consolidating, at relatively unchanged levels because if U.S. growth is 2% and is yielding 3.5%, that’s a pretty good outcome. So inactive central banks, strong growth. Looking ahead, what are the main forces shaping the FX market in 2026? And finally, when we just look at sovereign inter-EMU spreads, I think it’s just a story of spreads moving sideways over the first half of next year, with maybe a slightly more cautious outlook over the second half of next year.

Exhibit 2: Performance Of The Magnificent 7 Vs 52-week High

• To kick things off, we’ll hear from Bruce Kasman, our chief global economist.
• The company delivered revenue guidance for the current quarter of $560 to $580 million.
• The year ahead will likely be defined by the collision of uneven monetary policy, the relentless expansion of AI and intensifying market polarization.
• “The AI-driven supercycle is fueling record capex and rapid earnings expansion.
• This bullish outlook is buttressed by factors including robust earnings growth, lower rates, declining policy headwinds and the continued rise of AI.

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